• Bitcoin transactions have recently surpassed a two-year high, indicating the market is gearing up for a bull run.
• Exchange deposits have historically dominated withdrawals but in September 2022, more Bitcoins were withdrawn than deposited.
• This bullish metric shows investors are planning to hodl their coins rather than trade them.
Bitcoin Transactions Reaching Two-Year High
The number of Bitcoin (BTC) transactions has recently hit a two-year high indicating the market is gearing up for a bull run. Data analyzed by CryptoSlate shows that total number of Bitcoin transactions surpassed 307,000 in February 2023 and previous transaction number peaks correlated with Bitcoin’s price rallies.
Exchange-related deposits and withdrawals of Bitcoin give us an insight into market sentiment. When the number of exchange deposits grows, it indicates the liquid supply of Bitcoin grows and shows the market’s readiness to trade. Conversely, when the number of exchange withdrawals increases, investors seem less interested in trading and are looking to hold their BTC off exchanges. Since 2014, this trend was for exchange deposits to outpace withdrawals but this changed in September 2022 when more Bitcoins were withdrawn than deposited – 53,000 BTC withdrawn compared to 52,000 depositied during this month.
Bitcoin Rally Fueled By Derivatives
The previous transaction peak recorded in early 2021 followed the same pattern but this time around the price began rising even after transaction numbers peaked which indicated that the bull run experienced throughout last year was fueled by derivatives rather than on-chain activity.
Investors Planning To Hodl
This bullish metric shows investors are planning to hodl their coins rather than trade them which suggests they are accumulating crypto assets with long term goals rather than just profit from short term trades.
Self Custody Growing
Self-custody continues to grow as more people move away from exchanges into holding onto their own private keys on custodial wallets or other methods such as hardware wallets or paper wallets which further supports this thesis that investors are looking closer at long term investment strategies with cryptocurrency investments .
• The crypto market has been volatile since the collapse of Terra in June 2022, with Bitcoin reaching a three-year low of $15,500.
• There is debate on whether Bitcoin has bottomed or if further price volatility and lower lows are expected in the coming months.
• CryptoSlate looked at both factors that could cause a new low and those that suggest a bottom has been set to present both sides of the argument.
The Crypto Market Collapse
The crypto market experienced significant volatility following the collapse of Terra (LUNA) in June 2022. This chain reaction caused several major industry players to go bankrupt, culminating with FTX—one of the largest exchanges—wiping out billions in client deposits and pushing Bitcoin to its three-year low of $15,500.
Debating A Bottom
Since then, Bitcoin has recovered and hovered around $23,000 since January 2023. But with bankruptcy proceedings for FTX, Celsius, and other large companies still underway, it’s difficult to predict whether or not we have reached a bottom yet. While some believe that we have already seen the lowest prices this cycle will bring us, others expect more volatility and an even lower low in the coming months.
Analyzing On-Chain & Macro Data
CryptoSlate analyzed on-chain and macro data to present both sides of the argument: why it might continue dropping or why it might have already hit a bottom. These include whales accumulating huge amounts of BTC during extreme price volatility; long-term holders increasing their supply; perpetual funding rates no longer being negative; total supply going into profit; on-chain indicators flashing green; and finally, uncertainty surrounding narratives as well as potential Fed pauses on rate hikes which can affect dollar volatility.
Whales Accumulate During Volatility
Whale addresses (holding over 1k BTC) have historically accumulated Bitcoin during extreme price volatility such as when they scooped up almost 100k BTC during the Terra collapse in June 2022 after 3 months of sell offs followed by accumulation again at the end of 2020 when Bitcoin was trading at around $22k-$24k range .
Other Factors To Consider
In addition to whale behavior, other factors should be taken into account when predicting where Bitcoin may go next such as long term holder supply increasing their supply; perpetual funding rates no longer being negative; total supply going into profit; on-chain indicators showing signs of strength/growth according to Trading View’s analysis; uncertainty surrounding narratives due to incoming recession affecting dollar volatility etc..
• Sam Bankman-Fried, former CEO of FTX, denies that he attempted to influence a potential witness.
• U.S. attorney Damian Williams has accused Bankman-Fried of sending a message to FTX US General Counsel Ryne Miller on Jan. 15 via the messaging app Signal.
• Bankman-Fried awaits possible contact restrictions.
Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, is facing accusations that he attempted to influence a potential witness. On Jan. 27, Damian Williams, U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, made a court filing suggesting that Bankman-Fried had attempted to contact a witness on Jan. 15 via the encrypted messaging app Signal.
The message was allegedly sent to Ryne Miller, the General Counsel for FTX US. Miller may be a witness at trial, and it is believed that he has information that could incriminate Bankman-Fried. The message reportedly read: „I would really love to reconnect and see if there’s a way for us to have a constructive relationship, use each other as resources when possible, or at least vet things with each other.“
In response to the accusations, Bankman-Fried has denied that he tried to sway the witness. He is now awaiting possible contact restrictions, as Williams requested that the court impose limits on Bankman-Fried’s communications moving forward. It is unclear at this time what the outcome of these proceedings will be.
• Nearly $400M in crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours pushed Bitcoin above $23k
• In the same period, almost $500 million in Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, whereas Ethereum has only seen around $100 million withdrawn from exchanges
• Bitcoin now sits at its lowest level since December 2017, with only 11.7% of all BTC supply now sitting on exchanges
The crypto market has been experiencing a surge in activity as of late, with nearly $400 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours pushing Bitcoin above the $23,000 mark. This surge in activity has been reflected in the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges over the same period, with almost $500 million BTC withdrawn from exchanges in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ethereum has seen around $100 million withdrawn from exchanges in the same period.
This significant movement of cryptocurrency from exchanges to wallets signals a strong bullish sentiment from traders. This is further supported by the fact that Bitcoin now sits at its lowest level since December 2017, with only 11.7% of all BTC supply now sitting on exchanges. This indicates that traders are actively taking their profits off exchanges and looking to HODL for the long-term.
The positive sentiment has been further strengthened by the fact that Bitcoin and gold have recently experienced their highest correlation in over a year. This correlation has been so high that gold is currently approaching its all-time high, which could potentially act as a catalyst for Bitcoin to move even higher.
Overall, the current crypto market environment is bullish and it looks like the bullish trend is set to continue in the near future. With this in mind, traders should be cautious and ensure that they are not taking on too much risk. By following the right strategies, traders can capitalize on the current market conditions and benefit from the strong bullish sentiment.
• Solana (SOL) seeks to move back into the top 10 cryptocurrencies after temporarily flipping Polygon market cap on Jan. 14.
• Sentiment surrounding SOL has swiftly shifted from bearish to bullish as SOL price rose by more than 36% over the last seven days.
• Vitalik Buterin aided in bolstering SOL recovery momentum on Dec. 29, 2022, by posting a supportive statement on Twitter.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to experience volatility, the Solana (SOL) project is looking to return to the top 10. On January 14th, SOL temporarily flipped Polygon’s market cap, potentially signaling a move back into the top 10.
The recent surge in SOL’s price can be attributed to the shift in sentiment. In December of 2022, the developer community of Solana was in a state of turmoil, leading to a bearish outlook on the project. However, the situation has improved significantly over the past few weeks, which has been reflected in the increased value of SOL. Over the last seven days, the coin has gained more than 36%, allowing it to briefly overtake Polygon’s market cap.
Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, lent his support to the project on December 29th of last year. He tweeted that “some smart people tell me there is an earnest smart developer community in Solana, and now that the awful opportunistic money people have been washed out, the chain has a bright future.” This statement helped to bolster SOL’s recovery momentum, and the coin’s price has continued to grow since then.
Now that Solana is on an upward trajectory, it is looking to re-enter the top 10. It remains to be seen whether or not the coin can maintain its recent gains and make its way back into the top 10. But no matter the outcome, it is clear that the project has seen a significant resurgence in recent weeks and is looking to capitalize on the momentum.
• YouTube influencer Logan Paul will create a refund plan for his troubled CryptoZoo NFT project.
• The plan will allow dissatisfied investors to exit the project immediately and burn their CryptoZoo base tokens for their mint price.
• Paul also apologized to Stephen Findeisen, aka Coffeezilla, who criticized CryptoZoo in December over its incomplete status.
YouTube star Logan Paul has unveiled a comprehensive plan to address the concerns of dissatisfied investors in the CryptoZoo NFT project. The plan includes a refund option, token burning, an internal audit and investigation, and a commitment to complete the project as promised.
Paul announced the plan in a video posted on Twitter on January 13th. He said he would allow investors to exit the project immediately and burn their CryptoZoo base tokens for the mint price of 0.1 ETH ($144). He has pledged 1000 ETH ($1.4 million) for the redemption process, which allows investors to receive ETH or BNB tokens.
In addition to this, Paul and his manager Jeff Levin have committed to burning their own tokens in order to eliminate financial upside in CryptoZoo. He also said an internal investigation and audit would be performed and any funds recovered in that process would be returned to the community.
Finally, Paul is committed to completing the game and marketplace as promised. He also apologized to Stephen Findeisen, aka Coffeezilla, who had criticized CryptoZoo in December over its incomplete status.
The CryptoZoo NFT project was launched in 2021 by Paul and a larger team. It was met with growing dissatisfaction and criticism, leading Paul to take steps to address the issues. He hopes that the plan will allow investors to exit the project and regain their losses. Whether or not the plan proves successful remains to be seen.
•Illegal on-chain cryptocurrency activities have reached an all-time high of $20.1 billion.
•Forty-four percent of the $20.1 billion in illegal cryptocurrency transactions came from sanctioned entities.
•Conventional cryptocurrency-related crimes such as darknet marketing and terrorism financing decreased, while the percentage of crypto funds stolen increased by 7% YOY.
The world of cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly lucrative, but with that comes an increased risk of criminal activity. According to a recent report by Chainalysis, illegal on-chain cryptocurrency activities have reached an all-time high of $20.1 billion. This figure is a lower-bound estimate, and it does not include proceeds from non-crypto native crimes, such as conventional drug trafficking involving cryptocurrency payments.
Of the $20.1 billion in illegal cryptocurrency transactions, 44% came from sanctioned entities. Last year, the U.S. sanctioned cryptocurrency mixing services Blender and Tornado Cash, alleging they were used to launder billions of dollars from North Korea. The U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also implemented some of its most severe crypto sanctions in 2022, costing cybercriminals an estimated $15M in potential revenue in the past two months.
On a positive note, the volumes of transactions related to more conventional cryptocurrency-related crimes, such as darknet marketing and terrorism financing, decreased. In contrast, the percentage of crypto funds stolen increased by 7% YOY. This increase is likely due to the rise of crypto scams, such as fake crypto exchanges, fake crypto investments, and crypto giveaway scams.
To combat this, governments and financial institutions have been increasingly taking action to regulate the crypto space. For instance, the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has issued new rules that require crypto exchanges and other financial institutions to report suspicious activities. This move is aimed at preventing money laundering and other illegal activities in the crypto space.
Ultimately, the fight against illegal cryptocurrency activities will require both the public and private sectors to work together. Governments need to continue to issue regulations and enforce them, while companies should continue to develop and implement anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) technologies. With both sectors working together, we can ensure that the cryptocurrency space remains a safe and secure place for everyone to transact.
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